Barnes & Noble21 Lessons for the 21st Century by Yuval Noah Harari

SOME OBSERVATIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE OF THE WORLD

Yuval Noah Harari is an Israeli historian and professor in the Department of History at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. He wrote in the Introduction to this 2019 book, “In this book want to zoom in on the here and now, but without losing the long term perspective… My agenda here is global. I look at the major forces that shape societies all over the world and that are likely to influence the future of our planet as a whole… this book tries to cover different aspects of our global predicament without claiming to be exhaustive… this book is intended… as a selection of lessons. These lessons do not conclude with simple answers. They aim to stimulate further thinking and help readers participate in some of the major conversations of our time…. Many of the chapters were composed in response to questions I was asked by readers, journalists, and colleagues… I want to emphasize the connections between the great revolutions of our era and the internal lives of individuals… this book offers observations about the conduct of individuals as well as entire societies.” (Pg. xiv-xv) He continues, “In much of this book I discuss the shortcomings of the liberal worldview and the democratic system…. I believe liberal democracy is… the most successful and most versatile political model humans have so far developed for dealing with the challenges of the modern world… Unfortunately, in the present political climate any critical thinking about liberalism and democracy might be hijacked by autocrats and various illiberal movements… they have almost no tolerance of any criticism directed at them…. Without criticizing the liberal model, we cannot repair its faults or move beyond it.” (Pg. xviii-xix) He asserts, “the biochemical algorithms of the human brain are far from perfect. They rely on … outdated circuits adapted to the African savannah rather than to the urban jungle. No wonder that even good drivers, bankers, and lawyers sometimes make stupid mistakes. This means that AI can outperform humans even in tasks that supposedly demand ‘intuition.’… In particular, AI can be better at jobs that demand intuitions ABOUT OTHER PEOPLE… if these emotions and desires are in fact no more than biochemical algorithms, there is no reason computers cannot decipher these algorithms---and do so far better than any Homo sapiens.” (Pg. 21-22) He notes, “Preventing job losses altogether is an unattractive and probably untenable strategy, because it means giving up the immense positive potential of AI and robotics… Slowing the pace of change may give us time to create enough new jobs to replace most of the losses… Assuming that the new jobs won’t be just government sinecures, they will probably demand high levels of expertise… Yet even if enough government help were forthcoming, it is far from clear that billions of people would be able to repeatedly reinvent themselves without losing their mental balance. For this reason, if despite all our efforts a significant percentage of humankind is pushed out of the job market, we would have to explore new models for post-work societies, post-work economies, and post-work politics…” (Pg. 35-36) He states, “Though liberalism is wrong to think that our feelings reflect free will, up until today relying on feelings still made good practical sense… it was reasonable to argue that I have free will, because my will was shaped mainly by the interplay of inner forces, which nobody outside me could see. I could enjoy the illusion that I controlled my secret inner arena, while outsiders could never really understand what was happening inside me and how I make decisions. Accordingly, liberalism was correct in counseling people to follow their hearts rather than the dictates of some priest or party apparatchik. However, soon computer algorithms might be able to give you better counsel than human feelings.” (Pg. 49) He argues, “Science fiction tends to … assume that in order to match or surpass human intelligence, computers will have to develop consciousness… But in reality, there is no reason to assume that artificial intelligence will gain consciousness, because intelligence and consciousness are very different things… There are several different paths leading to high intelligence, and only some of these paths involve gaining consciousness.” (Pg. 70) He speculates, “instead of globalization resulting in global unity, it might actually result in speciation: the divergence of humankind into different biological castes or even different species. Globalization will unite the world horizontally by erasing national borders, but it will simultaneously divide humanity vertically… as the upper caste congregates into a self-proclaimed ‘civilization’ … to separate itself from the hordes of ‘barbarians’ outside.” (Pg. 77) He suggests, “science s ushering in the era of inorganic life shaped by intelligent design. In the process, Homo sapiens will likely disappear… Within a century or two, the combination of biotechnology and AI might result in physical and mental traits that completely break free of the hominid mold. Some believe that consciousness might even be severed from any organic structure and could surf cyberspace free of all biological constraints… we might witness the complete decoupling of intelligence from consciousness, and the world will be dominated by superintelligent but completely nonconscious entities.” (Pg. 124) He contends, “Human stupidity is one of the most important forces in history, yet we often tend to discount it… The problem is that the world is far more complicated than a chess board, and human rationality is not up to the task of really understanding it… One potential remedy for human stupidity is a dose of humility. National, religious, and cultural tensions are made worse by the grandiose feeling that my nation, my religion, and my culture are the most important in the world---and therefore my interests should come before the interests of anyone else, or of humankind as a whole.” (Pg. 184-185) He argues, “So if yo0u blame Facebook, Trump, or Putin for ushering in a new and frightening era of post-truth, remind yourself that centuries ago millions of Christians locked themselves in a self-reinforcing mythological bubble… For millennia, much of what passed for … ‘facts’ in human social networks were stories about miracles, angels, demons, and witches… I am aware that many people might be upset by my equating religions with fake news, but that’s exactly the point. When a thousand people believe some made up story for one month, that’s fake news. When a billion people believe it for a thousand years, that’s a religion…” (Pg. 241) Later, he adds, “if you dream of a society in which truth reigns supreme and myths are ignored, you have little to expect from Homo sapiens. Better to try your luck with chimps.” (Pg. 249) Perhaps surprisingly, in the last chapter, he states, “meditation is a tool for observing the mind directly. You miss most of its potential if, instead of meditating yourself, you monitor electrical activities in the brain of some other meditator. I am certainly not suggesting abandoning … brain research. Meditation … might complement them…” (Pg. 324) This book will appeal to those studying ‘speculative’ ideas about the future.